Bevan Foundation

The JRF published analysis showing Wales was set to have the highest child poverty rate of any UK nation by 2029, with over 34% of children living in low-income families. Scotland, in contrast, was forecast to reduce its rate to under 20% thanks to the Scottish Child Payment — made possible by Scotland's more extensive devolution of social security powers. The comparison directly illustrated the consequences of Wales' more limited devolution settlement.

The Bevan Foundation used the JRF analysis to pose a fundamental question about the devolution settlement's adequacy: either the Welsh Government accepts that Westminster's control of social security means child poverty will rise despite Wales' best efforts, or it 'decides that the need to reduce child poverty trumps the current devolution settlement and seeks some powers (and budget) over benefits in order to turn the tide.' This framing was significant because the Bevan Foundation is deliberately non-partisan and non-political — its willingness to argue that the devolution settlement is insufficient to address poverty gave the argument for further devolution a credibility that party-political sources cannot match. The Scotland comparison was particularly powerful: it demonstrated that a country with more devolved social security powers was on track to cut child poverty dramatically, while Wales — with fewer powers — was heading in the opposite direction. Director Victoria Winckler concluded that 'devolution to Wales has made little difference to child poverty — the figures speak for themselves.'

With the 2026 Senedd election approaching, the Bevan Foundation published modelling showing which policy interventions would be most effective at reducing poverty in Wales. The research was designed to inform manifesto commitments across all parties.

The report found that a Welsh Child Payment (modelled on Scotland's successful scheme) would be 'the most powerful and effective' intervention for reducing child poverty, but acknowledged that 'the powers of the Welsh Government may not extend to its introduction.' This finding crystallised the devolution dilemma: the single most effective anti-poverty measure available required powers that Wales does not currently have. The research recommended that the next Welsh Government either find mechanisms within current powers (such as grant-based top-up payments) or 'advocate for reform or devolution of key UK welfare policies.' The report was extensively cited in Senedd debates, with both Sioned Williams MS and Cabinet Secretary Jane Hutt referencing its findings. Its significance lay in providing non-partisan, evidence-based ammunition for the argument that the current devolution settlement is inadequate to address Wales' most pressing social problem — without taking a political position on whether the solution should be enhanced devolution or independence.