Welsh Conservatives

The Conservatives lost all of their Welsh Westminster seats in the Labour landslide, including long-held constituencies like Monmouth, Vale of Glamorgan, and Preseli Pembrokeshire. This left the party with no parliamentary representation in Wales for the first time since the 1997 Blair landslide that had paved the way for devolution.

The wipeout of Welsh Conservative MPs accelerated the party's internal crisis over devolution. With no Westminster presence, the Senedd group became the party's sole source of elected representation in Wales — making the 2026 election existentially important. However, the party was deeply divided between those who wanted to accept devolution and make it work (the Darren Millar wing) and those attracted to devolution-scepticism or even abolition (elements of the Andrew RT Davies wing and grassroots members). YouGov polling showed 66% of Welsh Conservative voters supported abolishing the Senedd — far higher than the party leadership's official position. This disconnect between the party's pro-devolution policy and its anti-devolution base made the Welsh Conservatives vulnerable to Reform UK, which could offer a more instinctively sceptical position on devolution without the institutional awkwardness of a party that relies on the Senedd for its political survival.

Davies resigned after narrowly surviving a confidence vote (9–7), ending a period of increasingly populist leadership that had blurred the party's position on devolution. Millar, a more traditional Conservative who had publicly criticised Davies's flirtation with abolition sentiment, took over with a mandate to stabilise the party ahead of 2026.

Millar's appointment signalled a return to the Welsh Conservatives' official pro-devolution position, but with a firm line against further expansion of devolved powers. In January 2026, responding to Eluned Morgan's Institute for Government speech, Millar said the First Minister should 'focus on the people's priorities, not constitutional navel gazing' and declared the Welsh Conservatives 'clear and unequivocal in saying no to more powers and no to more politicians.' He accused both Labour and Reform of 'appeasing Plaid Cymru's salami-slice strategy toward independence' by supporting further devolution. This positioned the Welsh Conservatives as the only major party defending the devolution settlement exactly as it currently stands — neither expanding it nor abolishing it. Whether this 'freeze the settlement' position can hold against the gravitational pull of both pro-independence and abolitionist sentiment remains the party's central strategic dilemma.